When a wind project is first considered it is important to perform an accurate Wind Recourse Assessment consultant to ensure the initial cash flow model is correct. This will allow the project to move forward or be halted before any up-front investment is made. This is also a critical stage in establishing the viability of the site for potential investors and lenders.
This stage involves using data collected by meteorological observatories in the area surrounding the proposed location for the turbines to establish a preliminary energy estimation and annual production projection. This will allow the project to be compared to similar projects and determine whether it is viable to continue with a more detailed site-specific evaluation that includes wind measurement equipment at the site for one year.
An acceptable wind resource for a project depends on many factors including the total installed cost, incentives available, the rate at which the power might be sold, and the investor’s required rate of return. A high-quality long term wind resource assessment is essential to enable the project to meet these criteria and have a reasonable chance of being financed.
However, measuring the actual wind at a given location is very expensive and requires several years of measurements. Fortunately, computer models that extrapolate conditions at a site from long Wind Recourse Assessment consultant term weather observations can be much less costly. Typically these models use an advanced physical model and then combine this with observational data to reduce uncertainty.
Vaisala has developed a machine learning algorithm to estimate turbulence intensity (TI) at the point location of a met tower, which is an essential variable for wind energy production. This can be difficult to measure and is often inaccurate due to situation-dependent biases in the models.
A good wind resource assessment will include not only the average monthly wind speeds at 30, 50 and 70 meters above the ground but will also provide a breakdown of the seasonal variations in energy production. This information will be useful to help the developer explain to investors and bankers how the variations in energy production will affect cash flows and the overall risk profile of the project.
In addition to the above, it is essential to have a full and accurate site meteorological evaluation with measurement data at each turbine hub height. This will help to identify and quantify the potential for production reductions from obstructions, building shadows, or wake and turbine performance losses.
The combination of these three pillars enables the most robust energy estimates and reduces uncertainty to a level that is considered bankable by most lenders. It is critical to the success of any project that all three are in place and used together. This approach also helps to keep development costs down by enabling developers to utilize a more limited met campaign than would be possible using only physical models. This is especially important for smaller scale projects with lower capital budgets. The result is a more accurate wind energy project that can compete with conventional alternatives and increase the chances of being financed.
